Improving Your NCAA® Bracket with Statistics

Improving Your NCAA® Bracket with Statistics is both an easy-to-use tip sheet to improve your winning odds and an intellectual history of how statistical reasoning has been applied to the bracket pool using methods standard and innovative.

Tom Adams is the creator of Poologic, a website that has provided research-based advice on winning bracket pools since 2000. Poologic has been featured in the New York Times, Sports Illustrated, SmartMoney, and other publications. He is a systems analyst who has spent most of his career in scientific research support. He has publications in the area of statistics and probability. He has a BSc in mathematics from the University of North Carolina.

1. The Birth of the Pool. 2. Predicting the Tournament Outcome. 3. Ratings versus Seedings. 4. The Conquest of Pools with Upset Incentives. 5. Predicting Your Opponent's Brackets. 6. Parametric Whole-Bracket Optimization. 7. A Practical Contrarian Strategy. 8. Statistical Hypothesis Testing. 9. Psychobracketology. 10. Bracket Advice Sources. 11. Basketball Knowledge Considered Harmful